Saturday, May 24, 2008

So much for Clinton's 'Big State' rationale

Two new polls prove the silliness of Hillary Clinton's insistence that if Barack Obama couldn't win certain states during the primaries, he could not possibly win them during the general election.

Clinton beat Obama by eight points in California. By her "Big State" logic, Obama is certain to lose that state to John McCain in November. An L.A. Times poll finds, however, that if the election were held today, Obama would beat McCain by a comfortable seven-point margin. In fact, Obama actually outpeforms Clinton against the presumptive Republican nominee.

The poll appeared to illustrate that Democrats, at least in California, are gravitating toward the candidate who is broadly expected to eventually seize the party's mantle. Obama now runs better against the Arizona senator than does Clinton among many of the groups that powered her victory in the state, among them Latinos, Catholics and those without college degrees.

Although exit polls in recent primaries elsewhere have shown Clinton supporters reluctant to embrace Obama as the nominee, there was little of that sentiment evident in the California poll. But the survey could not measure whether time had eased partisan passions or whether Californians were predisposed to embrace either Democrat.

Overall, Obama led McCain 47% to 40% among registered voters, while Clinton led McCain 43% to 40%.
Obama lost the big swing state of Ohio to Clinton by ten points. She has argued loudly and often that because of this result, Obama cannot be trusted with the nomination, as McCain would certainly defeat him there.

However, a Survey USA poll finds that if the election were held today, Obama would trounce McCain by nine points.

Q: If there were an election for President of the United States today, would you vote for Republican John McCain? Or Democrat Barack Obama?
A: McCain 39% Obama 48% Undecided 13%
Clinton's "Big State" argument was never really an argument at all. It was just one of many desperate rationales by which she attempted to convince people that, despite her failure to win the nomination on the merits, she should receive anyway it as a gift.

Lost in the sound and fury was an explanation of why, if she could not beat Obama, should anybody assume she could beat McCain. Perhaps she could. But Obama certainly can as well, and he has actually demonstrated his ability to win by besting Clinton in the primaries with more contests, more votes, and more delegates.

blog comments powered by Disqus