The Real Threat

McClatchy reports what everybody knows, but what most news outlets are afraid to say - that al Qaeda is not the main obstacle to "victory" in Iraq.

Despite President Bush's recent insistence that al Qaida in Iraq is the principal cause of this country's violence, senior American military officers here say Shiite Muslim militias are a bigger problem, and one that will persist even if al Qaida is defeated.

"The longer-term threat to Iraq is potentially the Shiite militias," one senior military officer said, echoing concerns that other American officials raised in recent interviews with McClatchy Newspapers.

Military officers hail the fact that violence is down as evidence that their campaign against al Qaida in Iraq is succeeding. But there's no sign of reconciliation between Sunni Muslims and Shiites, the rationale the Bush administration cites for increasing the number of U.S. troops in the country.

It is worth noting that "senior military officials" are going off-message even as the administration is in the middle of a massive p.r. blitz to argue that Bush's escalation strategy is working, and simply needs more time. "Senior military officials" on the ground in Iraq disagree, obviously, and are seem to be trying to push back against the September Report of General Petraeus, which will certainly argue that the occupation must continue indefinitely. The problem, as these "senior military officials" are trying to let us know, is that without political reconciliation, there is no chance for anything resembling victory in Iraq. And political reconciliation in Iraq is not likely any time soon.