Third-party Candidate

Religious conservative opposition to Rudy Giuliani continues to grow (h/t AMERICAblog):

"Speaking as a private citizen, no, no, I could not support (Giuliani)," said Tony Perkins, president of the Family Research Council, which has about a half-million members. "The 20 years I've been involved in politics, the life issue has been at the very top. How could I turn my back on that?"

Perkins said that should Giuliani win the nomination, he would vote for a third-party candidate who reflected his values. "It wouldn't be the first time," Perkins added in an interview last week.

Other prominent cultural conservatives to signal public opposition to Giuliani in recent weeks included James Dobson of Focus on the Family, Louis Sheldon of the Traditional Values Coalition, veteran activist and former presidential candidate Gary Bauer, and Richard Land of the Southern Baptist Convention.

It is worth remembering that Dobson has declared as well that he will vote for a third-party candidate if Giuliani gets the Republican nomination. I have predicted the entry of a third-party, anti-Giuliani (or anti-Romney) conservative into this race, and this kind of rhetoric from leaders of the religious right lifts it almost to the level of a metaphysical certainty.

The GOP certainly does need to worry about hostility to Giuliani among the religious base. I know that Glenn Greenwald and some others think Rudy can win them over with his tough talk on terrorism, but this analysis ignores two important points: with the clear exception of Ron Paul and the arguable exception of John McCain, every candidate in the GOP primary field is running as a less thoughtful, more thuggish version of George W. Bush; and, more importantly, abortion (along with gay rights to a somewhat lesser extent) is and will remain the dominant political issue for religious conservatives.

The thing to keep in mind about Evangelicals is that large numbers of them are, literally, one-issue voters. They consider it a matter of spiritual salvation. By that, I mean they are afraid of standing before God on Judgment Day and hearing Him say "depart from Me, thou worker of iniquity" because they voted for a "pro-abortion" politician when they were alive. Again, I mean this literally. It is why enough of them voted for George W. Bush in 2004 to throw the election to him even though his governing style demonstrates no evidence of a commitment to, or even a familiarity with, the teachings of Jesus Christ. He uses the expression "culture of life," and implies that he will appoint judges who are hostile to abortion, and that is enough for these voters. It trumps every other policy issue and political concern.

A Rudy Giuliani or a Mitt Romney at the top of the GOP presidential ticket will be an opportunity that a Sam Brownback or a Mike Huckabee cannot ignore. And ironically, while it will be an absolute nightmare for the anointed establishment candidate, a third-party conservative will bring other benefits that few observers have likely considered at this early stage of the game.

While voter hostility to a Giuliani or Romney candidacy is a real problem for the GOP, a greater threat to the broader Republican agenda is voter apathy. While most religious conservatives gag at the thought of voting for Rudy or Mitt, the chances are virtually nil that many of them would vote for a Democrat such as Hillary or Obama. In the case of Obama, the sad truth is that many southern Evangelicals are unreconstructed racists who would vote for a turkey sandwich before they voted for a black man. That's just the way it is, and anybody who says otherwise is ignorant or a liar. With regard to Hillary, the GOP has been extremely successful in creating a caricature of her as an ultra-leftist harpy whose entire policy platform consists of socialized medicine, mandatory abortions, and castration. Faced with a choice between Giuliani or Hillary, most religious conservatives would simply stay home on election day.

In the context of the presidential race, that's basically a wash. But conservative voter apathy has consequences beyond that context. If religious voters, disgusted with the GOP's nominee, are not in the booth on election day, they cannot pull the lever for a school board candidate, or for a state house candidate, or for an anti-gay-marriage ballot initiative. This is another reason why a third-party conservative candidate will find strong support from the power brokers of the religious right. If the party nominates Giuliani, it will be as good as serving Christian conservatives with divorce papers. They won't waste any time before sidling up to a new suitor, especially one who is just as reactionary about terrorism, but without Rudy's baggage.