CBS News/New York Times Poll: Bush at 31%

It is time for the conventionally wise to stop embarrassing themselves by declaring that Bush cannot possibly go any lower than __ percent approval.

We heard it at 51 percent We heard it at 45 percent. We heard it at 32 percent.

Now, the second poll in a row records Bush's approval at 31 percent. The latest CBS News/New York Times poll finds also that his disapproval is at 63 percent.

The most recent USA Today/Gallup poll registered Bush's approval number at 31 percent, with disapproval at 65 percent.

Every time Bush falls to a new low, which happens with practically every new poll, the pundit class insist that this has to be the floor. He could not possibly drop any lower than this! Surely, the hard-core base will keep him from falling any further!

Surely not.

The problem is that, bit by bit, Bush is casting off critical segments of what constituted his base of support for so long. First, he lost the true national security paleo-cons. Then, he lost the classical fiscal conservatives. Now, he is losing the racist/nationalist contingent who are unhappy with his squishy stance on immigration. Also, the religious wingnut component of the coalition is beginning to have its doubts, hence the threats from Dobson, Perkins, et al over their legislative wish list.

The only support Bush really has locked up anymore is from 30k Republicans. These are the former Reagan Democrats who bought into the GOP economic shell game, thinking that there was something in it for them. The Repubs have convinced these poor slobs, who are struggling to support their families on household incomes of $30 thousand a year, that they have a stake in repealing the taxes on capital gains and estates worth $2 million or more. Meanwhile, those who have jobs are trying to get to and from work every day with gas at three bucks a gallon. They haven't gotten a pay raise in three years. Their health benefits, assuming they have them, are being scaled back due to legislation that favors big business and insurance companies. If medical bills wipe out their savings, assuming they have them, they can't even declare bankruptcy. Their kids are fighting and dying in Iraq, and they're starting to wonder what the hell for.

This is the hard-core base that political observers insist will never abandon Bush. They should think again. There is only so much Kool-Aid people are willing to gulp. Even this group will decide eventually that it has had quite enough, thank you.

Thirty-one percent is by no means as low as Bush can go. Let's talk again when he hits two bits.