Bush presidency "may be over," says GOP pollster

A Republican pollster has grim news for President Bush. In a very meaningful sense, his presidency is finished.

"This administration may be over," Lance Tarrance, a chief architect of the Republicans' 1960s and '70s Southern strategy, told a gathering of journalists and political wonks last week. "By and large, if you want to be tough about it, the relevancy of this administration on policy may be over."

A new poll by RT Strategies, the firm headed by Tarrance and Democratic pollster Thomas Riehle, shows that 59 percent of Americans disapprove of Bush's job performance, while 36 percent approve -- a finding in line with other recent polls.

Tarrance said it would be extremely difficult for any president to bounce back this late in his administration and reassert influence on Capitol Hill when his approval rating barely exceeds his party's base support and half of all adults surveyed said they "strongly disapprove" of his performance. An overwhelming 73 percent of independents disapprove of Bush's performance, and two-thirds of those "strongly disapprove."

This is bad news for Bush, indeed. But, the story also contains alarming news for the rest of us. In this congressional election year, Bush's and the Republicans' one-time key strength appears to have lost much of its relevance for voters.

Forty-eight percent of respondents said they would like to see the Democrats back in control of Congress, while 37 percent want Republicans to remain in charge. The war looms large as a concern of voters, the poll shows, along with jobs, health care, gas prices and immigration. Combating terrorism -- long the president's strong suit -- is far less of a concern.

Since 9/11, Bush and the GOP have exploited Americans' fear of terrorism to great political advantage. They have relied shamelessly on this ace-in-the-hole to rescue them from defeat time and time again. The theme of the Bush's 2004 re-election campaign was, "I will protect you; Kerry will let the terrorists kill you and your children."

Even former Homeland Security chief Tom Ridge has suggested that many of the terrorist threat alerts issued during the campaign were enacted primarily for political reasons, to distract the public from issues or events unfavorable to Bush. Even though there has been no urgent threat alert since the election, qu'ell surprise, Bush himself has never hesitated to defend his failed and failing policies on the grounds that they are in some way connected to his fight against "the terrorists."

The Republican Party will not accept the idea that the terrorism card is no longer in play. It is all they have, and they will do whatever they can to get back in the game.

Expect the near-daily terrorism alerts of two years ago to make a conspicuous return. Also, look for the rhetoric tying every single issue to the War on Terror (or, the Long War or whatever they're calling it these days) to become ever more shrill. It's going to be an ugly year.